AUSTIN — The negative economic impact of a so-called bathroom bill in Austin, where the Senate this week approved the measure, stands at $155,750,553, but that’s only one city’s conferences and events.

The figures come from Visit Austin, the city’s convention and visitors bureau, and were updated Thursday.

They reflect events dating from this year into 2021, including those “already lost due to potential legislation,” plus meetings that “may” be cancelled, or groups that will “definitely” take their business elsewhere over what they consider discriminatory legislation, according to a Visit Austin email.

Statewide estimates dwarf the Austin impact, and will total up to $5.6 billion through 2026 if what advocates term privacy legislation passes, according to a study by AngelouEconomics. 

But the ever-changing dollar figure measures more than economic impact; It’s also a score card in the battle that pits figures such as Texas House Speaker Joe Straus, a business-backed Republican, against social conservatives within the state GOP.

“The political power in the Republican primary has shifted to social conservatives and away from business,” said University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus. “They have developed an endorsement, turnout machine. 

“The religious wing has matched with the tea party and libertarians and developed this core group of active voters.”

Still, a recent report from economist Ray Perryman suggests that a bathroom bill will cross party lines to reach both liberal and conservative pocketbooks.

“For Texas, reductions in travel and tourism activity would likely initially result in a gross product loss of over $3.3 billion per year as well as the loss of over 35,600 full-time equivalent jobs (based on 2016 levels of activity), with annual losses of $176.4 million in state revenue and $84.3 million in local fiscal resources,” Perryman wrote. 

“With the law in effect for a period of time, these losses could be expected to rise to over $5.5 billion in gross product per year, almost 59,600 jobs, $295.2 million in annual lost state revenue and $141.1 million in foregone local fiscal resources.”

Senate Bill 3 was authored by Sen. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham.

It requires a multi-occupancy restroom, shower and changing facility of a political subdivision, including a public school, or a charter school, to be designated for use by persons of the same sex as stated on their birth certificate.

Nationally, there’s a sharp partisan divide on the bathroom issue. 

“A majority of independents (57 percent) and nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of Democrats oppose requiring transgender people to use bathrooms of their birth sex as opposed to their current gender identity,” according to a recent report from the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute. 

“In contrast, most Republicans (59 percent) favor requiring transgender people to use bathrooms that correspond to their sex at birth, while fewer than four in 10 independents (39 percent) and Democrats (30 percent) agree.”

Still, in Texas, where the bathroom bill easily cleared the Senate, there’s strong sentiment from political experts that the House will flush the initiative, despite Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s muscle.

But that doesn’t mean that the coalition of social conservatives, tea party activists and libertarians will head to the showers, given their expertise in turning social issues into primary votes.

“A social issue can be very easy; that hits people emotionally,” Rottinghaus said. “Message beats money.” 

So a bathroom bill can get traction, economic impact notwithstanding. 

“There’s a lot of ways to make the economy strong,” Rottinghaus said. “It’s hard to put that into a specific policy that reflects your vote choice.”

John Austin covers the Texas Statehouse for CNHI’s newspapers and websites. Reach him at jaustin@cnhi.com.