Too big to fail: A Cinderella story
In a tournament that romanticizes Cinderella teams to the magnitude in which they are forever engraved in college basketball lore for all eternity, the journey of Cinderella going to the Big Dance is one that always ends with their championship dreams being turned to cinders at the hands of the “too big to fail” basketball powers that be.
Sure, everyone remembers George Mason, a No. 11 seed, making it to the Final Four. What people don’t seem to realize is that is as far as Cinderella has truly ever been. That happened 16 years ago.
Before people start yelling about Butler, what needs to be understood is that Butler was a No. 5 seed when they played in the national championship against Duke. While it is true Butler was certainly a David-Goliath story against big bad No. 1 seed Duke, does a No. 5 seed truly qualify as a Cinderella story, simply because they were a small school? I don’t think so.
If that were the case, then would anyone have considered the No. 1 seed Wichita State team a Cinderella, had they not lost in the second round to Kentucky (more on those Cats later) and went on a tournament run? Wichita State is in the same spectrum as “small schools” as Butler, so clearly there is more to it than the size of the school. Seeding matters, and a No. 5 seed cannot be a Cinderella.
Now people are probably yelling “well what about next season” when Butler made it back to the championship game as a No. 8 seed against UConn. Once again, going back to the fairytales and fables comparisons, Butler was certainly David versus the traditional basketball school in UConn (Goliath), but were not a Cinderella team.
As was just mentioned, Butler was playing in their second straight championship game. How can a school that made its second straight trip the national championship game be considered a Cinderella team? It can’t be. Clearly there is more to it than seeding.
In 1983, No. 6 seed, ten-loss North Carolina State defeated No. 1 seed Houston. Many fans remember Coach Valvano running all over the court hugging players after winning at the last second. Great story? Absolutely. Cinderella story? No; they were a No. 6 seed. That was almost 30 years ago. Even if it were a Cinderella story, which it isn’t, it would further prove the rarity of a team even being considered a Cinderella making it to the big stage.
Back to the year Wichita State lost to Kentucky in the second round, despite Wichita being an undefeated No. 1 seed. Kentucky went on to compete in the championship game that year, as a No. 8 seed, versus No. 7 seed champion UConn. Does anyone truly believe either Kentucky or UConn were Cinderella teams? Absolutely not. Kentucky has one of the richest basketball histories out there, and UConn is a school with multiple championships.
George Mason was a double-digit seed, yes, but so was Syracuse when they went on their most recent Final Four run. Once again, Syracuse is a large school that competes in the ACC (and formerly the Big East) that won a championship back in 2003.
UCLA was a No. 11 seed just least season when they went on their Final Four run. Anyone who describes UCLA as a Cinderella needs to be checked for sanity.
A large, championship-touting school cannot be a Cinderella, even as a double-digit seed. A great story? Yes. A Cinderella story? No.
Now, George Mason is not the only Cinderella to make it to the Final Four; they are just the most memorable. VCU making it to the Final Four (facing Butler, coincidentally) certainly qualifies as a Cinderella run: they were a double-digit seed, a smaller school and had little to no history of being a championship contender.
The point is that the “too big to fail” powerhouse schools that are members of majorly competitive basketball conferences — or at the very least face a majorly competitive basketball schedule (i.e. Gonzaga) — are the ones dominating the sport and consistently make Cinderella stories end sooner than the audience would like.
The audience always has to deal with Cinderella settling for less than winning the national title. While there is no shame in No. 15 seed St. Peter’s valiantly defeating Kentucky and Purdue to make the Elite Eight, that is still only as far as they got. They lost to blue blood powerhouse North Carolina, too. There is always some form of moral victory that goes at the very end of the Cinderella story. The audience always ends up having to settle for how great the run was, instead of watching them hoist a trophy.
Think of the blue bloods of Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and UCLA as the big banks, Big Tobacco and Walmart. Think of George Mason, St. Peter’s, VCU and UMBC as the local small businesses.
Everyone, rightfully so, loves their local small businesses, much like everyone loves the Cinderella team. However, the odds are stacked in their favor against the big boys. Nobody cheers on Walmart. Nobody roots for Goldman Sachs.
However, unlike small businesses, which thrive in areas such as northern Alabama, the Cinderella teams always lose eventually. Big bank takes little bank. They go on good runs but always come up short, with the odds forever against them with talent, funding, recruiting, program history, the transfer portal, etc.
Sure, St. Peter’s won a couple battles versus Wal-Mart (Kentucky) and Apple (Purdue), but they eventually fell to Goldman Sachs (North Carolina), who would go on to the title game versus Amazon (Kansas). It is possible for Cinderella to win a few battles, but it is impossible for Cinderella to win every battle in a six-round tournament, and sometimes seven rounds if there’s a play-in game.
Here is a list of every national champion since 2000: Michigan State, Duke, Maryland, Syracuse, UConn, North Carolina, Florida, Florida, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, UConn, Kentucky, Louisville, UConn, Duke, Villanova, North Carolina, Villanova, Virginia, Baylor, Kansas and one tournament canceled due to COVID-19.
What does every single one of these teams have in common? They aren’t a Cinderella story. A grand total of zero of these teams had double-digit losses. In fact, the last double-digit loss championship team was all the way back in 1988, with Kansas.
The audience craves the big man falling and the little man surviving to the next round. Furthermore, there is an insatiable thirst to see the worse seeds defeat the better seeds.
However, it is almost always a farce. For example, this year’s North Carolina team that made it to the title game was a No. 8 seed. Was anyone really thrilled by North Carolina beating Duke in the Final Four because they were the worse seed? No; people were entertained by two rivals going at it for a chance at the title game. No one considers North Carolina a Cinderella story. They are a top five program of all time.
The bad seeding of a traditionally great team is nothing more than a mask the NCAA tournament wears to make “upsets” seem greater than they are, and amplifies the false narrative they are some Cinderella story.
Lets face it: When the bad seeds make it to the Final Four, they are almost always great programs with good teams that had some sort of hitch to their season. Syracuse was mentioned earlier, as was the UConn-Kentucky title game, UCLA’s run last year and North Carolina’s run this year. These are all traditionally fantastic basketball programs who had good teams that underperformed in the regular season, thus giving them their bad seed.
Not only have the big boys always ruined Cinderella runs by crushing the smaller teams’ dreams, they even ruin Cinderella stories by getting worse seeds than they deserve and still going on to win. This either ruins a true Cinderella’s tournament run, or creates the illusion that they are a Cinderella team themselves for simply having a bad seed.
While the NCAA tournament is always filled with true upsets and memorable happenings, the Cinderella story only lasts as long as it takes “too big to fail” teams to wake up.