Not enough snow: Drought will still be concern in 2017
PLAISTOW, N.H. — A normal amount of snow and rain has fallen this winter, but it may not save the Northeast from the effects of the dry summer.
The December 2016 precipitation has done little to curb the fears of environmental experts who are concerned that this summer’s drought may continue into the spring without sufficient snow melt.
Nationally, roughly 50 percent of the country is seeing abnormally dry weather and 10 percent is in severe drought, as of Dec. 27. The U.S Department of Agriculture estimates that over 126 million people are living in drought affected areas in the U.S., about 40 percent of the population. States in the southwest and southeast are experiencing the most areas in extreme and exceptional drought.
In southern New Hampshire, the small town of Plaistow sits right on the Massachusetts border and is still dealing with the effects first hand.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Drought Monitor, as of Dec. 27 more than 90 percent of New Hampshire was still classified as “Abnormally Dry,” the first level drought classification. However parts of the southern tier of the state, including Plaistow, have been classified at the worst level, “Extreme Drought.” And even with the snow, the region is still at risk.
“At this point, for the past month, we’ve seen more normal precipitation amounts,” said Brandon Kernen, who works at the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services Drinking Water Source Protection Program.
“(However), the deficit in precipitation is substantial. If you look back over the last year or so we are still down 20 or 30 percent in normal rainfall,” he said.
Many of these towns lack municipal water sources, and rely on individual wells and Kernen says the department continues to to receive reports of local well failures, although they have decreased since October.
“There won’t be any substantial recovery from the drought until the spring thaw and the groundwater is recharged,” Kernen said.
Kernen added that the lack of consistently cold temperatures has prevented snow accumulation on the ground for more than a few days at a time, which will also impact groundwater recharge in the spring.
“There’s really a benefit to having a slow thaw of the snow pack so (it) disperses to recharge over the time,” he said. “If it melts too quickly it will all run off into surface water, the ground will be too saturated.”
John McKinney of McKinney Artesian Well and Supply Company in Plaistow sees a positive in how the warmer-than-normal winter temperatures have limited how thoroughly the ground has frozen, compared to how frozen it could be with more freezing days.
“These couple of days, it’s warm, it thaws out — it’s definitely been helping,” he said. “…We didn’t have any snow last year — that’s the thing with droughts, it builds up over years,” he added.
Plaistow Town Manager Sean Fitzgerald is also concerned by the drought’s build up over time. The winter precipitation numbers are part of a broader, more concerning picture that goes back to the summer, he explained.
“Back in September I participated in a conference call with New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and a few of the sobering comments were that things could get worse before they could get better,” Fitzgerald said.
“We were at that point below 16 inches for rainfall — the commissioner referred to the drought as a slow moving natural disaster, and particularly the communities in southern New Hampshire were facing some issues,” he said.
As of Dec. 27, Plaistow is still in extreme drought and almost 5 inches below normal rainfall, Fitzgerald said.
He explained that in Plaistow, town officials have received $300,000 from the state to study options for more sustainable water sources, noting that Plaistow lacks significant standing water sources and relies heavily on its wells.
According to the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predictions suggest Northeast will see above-average temperatures but roughly average precipitation in the next few months — but whether that will cover for missed rain and snowfall in the fall and winter is unknown.
Golden writes for the North Andover, Massachusetts Eagle Tribune.