The condition of the U.S. economy is top of mind for CNHI readers recently surveyed across 22 states. Respondents were asked to choose three issues as their leading concerns as the 2024 presidential election cycle kicks into high gear.

The combined choice of economy/inflation/national debt was picked by 64 percent of the 1,340 respondents followed by immigration/national security at 54 percent and abortion/reproductive rights at 38 percent.{span class=”print_trim”}

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The unscientific online survey was conducted Jan. 25 through Feb. 2.

“The economy is No. 1 and it’s going to be No. 1 maybe even by a larger margin. That is the thing driving people’s undecided votes at this point. Even though a lot of economic data is good, there’s still a perception of insecurity,” said Chris Ellis, political science professor and co-director of the Institute for Public Policy at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania.

The remaining issues prioritized by the respondents were, in order: climate change/energy policy, election integrity, foreign policy, crime, education and social justice. Last but not insignificant were “other” fill-in responses included in 9 percent of surveys led by the preservation of democracy in the U.S.

The U.S. economy exceeded expectations when more than 353,000 jobs were added in January, according to the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, led by gains in professional and business services, health care and retail. That continued two months of strong gains.

Hourly earnings are up, the gross domestic product grew and unemployment held steady, according to data shared by the U.S. Department of Commerce. While inflation ticked up in consecutive months, the rate is in a near consistent decline since peaking in June 2022, data shows.

Michael Frank, professor of political science at Anderson University in Indiana, said research shows voter attitudes on the economy are influenced by national conditions more than their own bank accounts.

“They’re more likely to attribute troubles they’re having with local conditions, things that can more easily be explained. At the same time, they’re very sensitive to changes in prices,” Frank said.

Shanna Padgham, professor and chair of political science at Oklahoma City Community College, had a different outlook. She’s found that voters are typically more focused on their individual finances when thinking about the nation’s economy, comparing how far their paycheck might go compared to past years and past presidential administrations.

“People may feel their individual finances may not stretch so far even if they’re making more money,” Padgham said.

Respondents in the CNHI survey were predominantly males aged 60 or older. There was a near-even split in political affiliations — 34 percent Democrat, 34 percent Republican and 32 percent independent or third party.

About 53 percent of the respondents said they voted for President Joe Biden in 2024 with 41 percent having supported Trump. Looking ahead to the November General Election, nearly 48 percent said they’d choose Biden, 37 percent favor Trump and 14 percent are either undecided or are planning to vote for a different candidate.

The “other” selection in this category allowed write-in explainers. About 70 said they’d vote for Republican Nikki Haley while nearly 50 said they’d prefer to vote for anyone other than the presumptive nominees, Biden and Trump.

“I was actually surprised by how well Biden did. I’m not shocked that he’s ahead, but I didn’t expect that margin,” said Nick Clark, professor and department head of political science at Susquehanna University in Pennsylvania.

Padgham expressed surprise, too, pointing out that a poll limited only to Oklahoma where she is based would likely return very different results. Trump received 65 percent of the votes in the Sooner State in 2020.

She said she believes voters largely have their minds set on who they intend to vote for. That could change for some supporters, both she and Ellis said, pending the outcome of Trump’s ongoing legal issues. Frank isn’t convinced the outcome of any of Trump’s ongoing legal battles will influence supporters to not vote for him.

A federal appeals court this week turned down Trump’s argument that he should be immune from prosecution related to the 2020 election and attempts to overturn the results.

Foreign policy might grow in relevance depending on whether wars in Ukraine, Israel and beyond in the Middle East escalate further, including potential conflict between China and Taiwan.

“If there’s an attack on the U.S. as a consequence of some of this, all of a sudden you will see terror and national security increase significantly as an issue,” Clark said.