Limestone County and parts of North Alabama and South Central Tennessee are in the grips of the worst drought in more than 50 years, experts say. Local farmers fear it could get worse.

According to a study conducted by the University of Alabama at Huntsville, rainfall in this area since Jan. 1, 2005, is between 18- and 40 inches below normal, depending on location. Spring’s arrival follows the driest December, January and February span in 117 years of record keeping in the Tennessee Valley Authority’s seven-state region, a spokesman for the utility said.

The drought’s cumulative effect is being amplified by the driest winter since 1986, drawing down stream and groundwater levels across the region, said Dr. John Christy, Alabama’s state climatologist and a professor of atmospheric science at UAH.

“Winter is when you recharge the groundwater,” Christy said. “In March the plants start growing and they suck up a big part of any rain that falls in the spring. We’ve had a long, relatively dry period. The local river basins were already hunting and then along comes another dry winter like we just finished.”

Little rain has fallen across North Alabama through the first three weeks of March, which is usually the wettest month of the year.

The Limestone County area is 9.5 inches below normal for rainfall since Dec. 1 and more than 40 inches behind since Jan. 1, 2005. This area has seen below normal rainfall every season during that 26-month period — and is already almost three inches below normal for March. For that same 26—month time span Muscle Shoals is more than 27 inches below normal.

Randy Kerr, TVA’s river forecasting manager, said the utility has “been in a water conservation mode for little over a month, and our pool levels are actually a little bit above where they should be.”

“This is just now where we start really aggressively filling our reservoirs,” he said.

Kerr said TVA’s main river channels likely will be unaffected. But if conditions remain dry, it’s possible that water levels of tributaries such as the Hiawassee and Ocoee rivers may be below levels required for rafting and recreation, he said.

“It’s a little early to say those levels will be impacted,” he said. “There is that possibility.”

It’s also too early to predict whether dry weather will cause electric bills to climb, TVA officials said. Any impact would be felt in next year’s budget, Moulton said.

After a dry spell last year, current conditions and forecasts have farmers, firefighters and power producers on alert.

John Kirksey, resources protection unit leader for the Tennessee Forestry Division, said the conditions have doubled the number of wildfires this year.

“Since Jan. 1 we’ve had about 1,200 wildfires,” Kirksey said. “We have had about 840 wildfires for that same time frame for the last five years.”

Six of the last eight North Alabama winters (December, January and February) have seen rainfall that was below what is considered the seasonal norm.

On average, the seven north Alabama counties were 6.74 inches below normal for winter 2006-2007 rainfall.